AI Apocalypse: A Real Threat or Just Science Fiction?

The P(doom) scale of AI's threat to humanity

Artificial Intelligence is a hot topic with varying opinions on its potential threat to humanity. While some experts are optimistic, others believe that the risk of AI wiping out humanity is significant.

Yann LeCun, a leading figure in the AI industry, estimates the risk of an AI apocalypse at less than 0.01%, suggesting that an asteroid impact is more likely to cause human extinction. However, not all experts share his optimism. Geoff Hinton and Yoshua Bengio, two other prominent figures in AI, place the odds at 10% and 20% respectively, within the next 20 years.

On the more pessimistic end, Roman Yampolskiy, an AI safety scientist, believes that the end of humanity due to AI is practically guaranteed, with a 99.999999% chance of occurring.

Elon Musk, a known advocate for AI safety, believes that there is a chance AI will lead to humanity's demise, but he also believes that the potential benefits outweigh the risks. During a recent seminar, Musk suggested that honesty in AI development is key to avoiding catastrophic outcomes.

As the AI industry continues to grow, experts debate on the probability of doom and emphasize the importance of ethical and responsible development of AI technology.

If you're interested in learning more about where AI researchers and forecasters stand on this issue, you can find additional information online.